"Three Strikes" does seem to have reduced the total number of crimes -- but it has also led people who already have two strikes to commit more violent crimes than before (because the penalty for any type of third strike is the same, and any felony qualifies). Seehttp://volokh.com/posts/1205575279.shtml
Yes, I discussed this in 2004. You can read it by going down the link column until you get to Under Theory) Heavy Sentences.
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